중국 시진핑 체제의 출범과 대외정책 전망

China's New Leadership of Xi Jinping and the Prospect of Its Foreign Policy

지난 18차 당대회와 12차 전국인민대표대회를 통해 향후 10년간 중국을 이끌어가게 될 시진핑 중심의 신지도부가 출범하였다. 중국의 신지도부는 대내외적 도전과제들에 대한 대응 필요성에 따라 ‘평화발전’의 지속과 동시에 ‘책임대국’ 외교를 강조하였다. 그러나 군사력 확충에서의 공세적 행태도 함께 보일 것이다. 미중관계에 대해서는 소통과 협력을 통해 상호존중하고 윈-윈 할 수 있는 ‘새로운 강대국 관계’를 제시하였으나, 양국관계는 갈등과 협력의 패턴이 반복될 가능성이 높다. 동아시아 역내 해양영토 분쟁을 ‘핵심이익’ 사안으로 인식하고 있는 중국은 강경한 입장을 견지하겠지만, ‘매력공세’ 및 외교적 노력을 통해 합목적적이고, 조율된 정책을 취할 것으로 보인다. 북한의 제3차 핵실험 이후 중국의 한반도 정책은 전략적 딜레마에서 벗어나 ‘제3의 방식’을 통해 북한 핵문제를 관리하고 해결해 나갈 수 있을지 시험대에 올라있다. 우리는 미중간 경쟁과 갈등이 한반도와 한국에 투영되지 않도록 노력하면서 양국간 타협과 협력이 한반도의 평화와 안정, 비핵화, 남북관계 개선 등 우리의 국가목표와 합치될 수 있도록 해야 한다. 이와 동시에 한미동맹과 한중 전략적 협력동반자관계를 균형 있게 발전시켜 나가야한다. 대중국 외교에 있어서는 중국의 ‘책임대국’ 외교를 적극 활용하면서도 ‘공세적’ 행태의 가능성에 대한 레버리지를 준비하고, 한중 양국관계의 전략적 협력을 내실화하기 위해 전략대화를 업그레이드할 필요가 있다.

At the close of China's 18th Party Congress as well as the 12th National People's Congress, the new leadership under Xi Jinping assumed power for the next 10 years. Facing the growing necessity to respond to a number of internal and external challenges in accordance with its foreign policy objectives, China's new leadership is expected to pursue 'responsible power diplomacy' while simultaneously continuing its aggressive moves such as the military buildup. With regard to U.S.-China relations, the two countries are likely to continue to show the repeating patterns of cooperation and conflict, even though China has recently begun to promote ‘a new type of great power relationship’ with the U.S. in an attempt to forge mutually beneficial relations based on close dialogue and cooperation. Regarding China's maritime disputes on its periphery, China is likely to maintain a hard-line stance to defend its 'core interests'. However, China is also seeking to pursue more sophisticated and balanced approaches in foreign policy by placing equal emphasis on diplomatic measures as reflected in its 'charm offensive' policy. In the wake of North Korea's third nuclear test, the international community is paying closer attention to China's North Korea policy. But, it still remains to be seen if the Chinese government signals a shift from the current strategic dilemma and seeks other alternative approaches to manage and ultimately resolve Pyongyang's nuclear problems. Under this circumstance, the ROK government should prevent any potential spill-over effects stemming from the deteriorating U.S.-China relations on the Korean Peninsula. Similarly, it is equally important for Seoul to increase a possibility that the cooperative and collaborative relationship between the U.S. and China contributes toward achieving the ROK's strategic objectives, which include the maintenance of peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, denuclearization of North Korea and development of inter-Korean relations. At the same time, the ROK government should maintain a strategic balance between the ROK-U.S. alliance and the ROK-China strategic cooperative partnership as well. In particular, the ROK government needs to take advantage of China's 'responsible power diplomacy' in its policy toward China and prepare its own strategic leverage against Beijing's assertive behavior in foreign policy. Moreover, the ROK should also upgrade the existing strategic dialogue at the vice foreign ministerial level with China to further strengthen strategic bilateral cooperation in the coming years.