유가충격이 무역수지에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Analyzing the Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Trade Balance: New Evidence from Korea-China Trade

Purpose - The primary contribution of this paper is to investigate the impacts of oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks on three measures of South Korea’s trade balance oil, non-oil, and total trade balance with its top trading partner China. Design/Methodology/Approach - In order to investigate how trade balance is influenced by three types of oil price shocks, we used a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR). Also, Impulse Response Function (IRF) was used to calculate degree of the trade balance response to the oil price shock. Findings - We discover that aggregate demand shocks have the greatest impact on Korea’s trade balances, while oil supply shocks have negligible impacts. Additionally, the overall impact of the three oil shocks on Korea’s trade balances with China appears to rely on the response of the non-oil trade balance. Research Implications - This outcome explains why the roles of the different shock components of crude oil prices should be accounted for when modeling the nexus between oil price shocks and Korea’s balance of trade