Implications of the Ukrainian Crisis on the Korean Peninsula

Implications of the Ukrainian Crisis on the Korean Peninsula

Purpose: This paper intends to examine the background of Putin's invasion of Ukraine and to find out the im-plications of the Ukrainian situation on the Korean Peninsula. President Vladimir Putin has long ruled Russia by turning it into a powerful totalitarian country. At the heart of Putin's neo-Eurasian policy are the construction of the Eurasian Empire, the establishment of centralization, opposition to Western values, and hostility to the United States advocating Russia's religion and traditional values. Influenced by Lugin's philosophy, Putin had a huge vision to build a Eurasian empire to undermine U.S. hegemony by integrating former Soviet countries with Eastern Europe and putting EU countries under the protection of Russia. Method: This paper analyzes the political implications of Ukraine’s crisis on the Korean Peninsula by using Tucker’s political leadership processes. Robert C. Tucker suggests the political leadership process as an authorita-tive diagnosis of the situation, preparing policy alternatives to solve problems, and mobilization of support to achieve it. Russia implemented a gray zone strategy to achieve its goal of restoring the lost territory in the wake of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Results: North Korea successfully launched allegedly a Hwaseong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile on March 24, 2022. North Korea can also try to provoke hybrid warfare by benchmarking Russia, and the expected types of provocations are information warfare, cyber warfare, diplomatic warfare, and special warfare by demonstrat-ing nuclear capability. The threat to hybrid warfare by North Korea includes nuclear weapons, special forces, and cyber-attacks by the strong centralized command control. Conclusion: First, the peace process on the Korean Peninsula is expected to be difficult. Under the Ukrainian crisis, China and Russia are working together to keep the global influence of the United States in check. The United States cannot seek China's cooperation in the peace process on the Korean Peninsula. Because the United States is preparing a secondary boycott on China which helps Russia. Secondly, the arms race between the two Koreas will accelerate. North Korea, using Ukraine as a lesson, is stepping up its test-firing of ICBM and tactical nuclear weapons tests to strengthen its self-defense capabilities. In preparation for such heightened tensions in North Korea, South Korea needs to cooperate with the US and maintain close cooperation with its allies. Third, we should prepare for the possibility of North Korea imitating Russia's hybrid war against Ukraine. North Korea is likely to carry out intelligence warfare, cyber warfare, diplomatic warfare, and special warfare using gray zone strategies.