An Analysis of Factors Impacting Vietnam’s Coffee Exports: An Approach from the Gravity Model

This paper uses the gravity model estimated by the random effect method to analyze the factors affecting Vietnam’s coffee export turnover for the period 2007–2020 major markets according to statistics from the General Statistics Office and the General Department of Customs. Coffee export turnover was collected from the General Statistics Office, General Department of Customs, and Vietnam Cacao Coffee Association. The authors calculated the price of coffee based on output and export value from data on coffee export turnover; the authors calculated the economic gap based on population and Gross Domestic Product data (reference: geographic distance metrics on the website: http://www.distancefromto.net/countries.php) and other data was collected based on the databases of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, and World Bank organizations. The results of the study show that from 2007 to 2020, the factors of Vietnam’s export price of coffee, geographical distance, Gross Domestic Product of the importing country and Gross Domestic Product of Vietnam, the population of Vietnam, the economic gap between Vietnam and the importing country, the openness of the economy, all have an impact on Vietnam’s coffee export turnover. Finally, some conclusions about the policy’s impact are made based on the empirical results of the paper.