군산 현대조선소 폐쇄 대신 울산 현대조선소 수출물량을 감축했더라면?

What If Ulsan Hyundai Shipyard Yielded Some Export Amounts to Gunsan Hyundai Shipyard to Avoid the Closure of Gunsan Hyundai Shipyard?

In this paper, first, the effects of the closure of Gunsan Hyundai Shipyard on 165 industrial sectors in 17 Korean provincial economies have been estimated. An inter-regional and inter-industry analysis of the reduction of ship exports, worth ₩1,232.2 billion at Gunsan Hyundai Shipyard, which caused its closure, has been conducted with the most recent ‘2015 regional input-output statistics,’ publicized in 2020 by the Bank of Korea. Second, another inter-regional and inter-industry analysis of the reduction of ship exports, worth the same ₩1,232.2 billion at Ulsan Hyundai Shipyard has been conducted as an assumed scenario that Hyundai Heavy Industries should have chosen if it did not have closed the Gunsan Hyundai Shipyard. And their results are compared and contrasted for the analysis of regional economy as well as business policy implications. The estimated effects on the production, value-added, imports in aggregation nation widely have no significant difference in both cases. But significantly different figures have been estimated in the unemployment effects between the two cases. It is shown that the Gunsan Hyundai Shipyard case reduces 13,046 workers while Ulsan Hyundai Shipyard case reduces 11,444 workers nation widely. And it is found that this difference is mainly attributed by the higher labor productivity in Ulsan Hyundai Shipyard than Gunsan Hyundai Shipyard, which supports the management decision to close Gunsan Hyundai Shipyard by Hyundai Heavy Industries in 2017.