기후변화에 따른 작물 재배면적 할당 및 이동 변화 분석

Changes in Major Crop Allocations and Shifts under Climate Change in Korea

Weather and climate change have been affecting changes in land uses for crop cultivations in Korea. Due to climate change, the traditional concept of main producing areas has been weakened, and crops that were not cultivated in the past are being cultivated in unexpected regions. To estimate and analyze the change in land allocation with six crop groups, we used a fractional multinomial logit (FMNL) model. Because the dependent variable which is a share of land acreage is a number between zero and one, FMNL model leads to efficient estimators. Estimation results show that income per 10ha for each crop group increased the proportion of choosing the crop except for fruits and rice. As the average summer temperature rises, the ratio of land allocation for pulse crops and root & tuber crops increases, and as precipitation increases, the proportion of spring vegetable cultivation is expected to increase. We also examined the patterns of centroid shifts of crop groups and predicted the movement which is expressed in latitude and longitude under climate change scenarios. It was predicted that most crops would move northeast toward 2070. Therefore, it is necessary to adapt to climate change by expanding R&D and education in response to changes in crops allocation for each local government.