UR 협정 이후 농업부문 투융자 성과분석

An Analysis on the Performance of Investment and Loan in the Agricultural Sector after the UR Agreement: Utilizing Bivariate Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

This study investigated the long-run and short-run impacts of investment and loan in the agricultural sectors by dividing the effect into production, income, productivity, self-sufficiency, and price volatility by utilizing the bivariate Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. In overall, our results present that agricultural investment and loan had a long-run positive effect on value of production, productivity, agricultural income, self-sufficiency, and price volatility. However, the effects of investment and loan are focused on livestock sectors and labor productivity has not improved by those policies. Those results imply the policy of investment and loan in the agricultural sectors has some rooms to be improved. In turn, the government of Korea should redesign the policy of investment and loan in the agricultural sector to improve those policies effects to come up following mega-FTAs trends such as RCEP and CPTPP.