계절 ARIMA 모형을 통한 호텔객실매출액의 예측

Forecasting of Hotel Bedroom Sales By Seasonal ARIMA Model: The Case of Gyeongju Deluxe Hotels

Sun-lust resort hotel unlike other businesses tend to suffer from high seasonal and economic fluctuations at high-low season or weekday-weekend period. Using monthly sales data of deluxe hotel of Gyeongju. during past ten years this paper forecasts and evaluates the bedroom sales trends. The result shows that the difference exists quite a lot between on-season and off-season of room sales of deluxe hotel of Gyeongju. In the forecast multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0) model was found the most appropriate one. Authors suggest that the daily sales forecast are preferable to monthly sales forecast if data conditions are met.