서울 특1급 관광호텔의 외국인 객실수요에 대한 구조변화 분석

Analysis on the Structural Change for Foreigners’ Guestroom Demands at Super Deluxe Hotels in Korea: by Applying CUSUM Test, CUSUMSQ Test and Chow Test

Due to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) during the first quarter of 2003, foreigners’ guestroom demands at super deluxe hotels in Seoul have highly decreased. Based on this factor, the structural change on foreigners’ guestroom demands and the cause of its occurrencewere analyzed by the CUSUM test, CUSUMSQ test, and the Chow test. As the results of CUSUMSQ test, structural change had appeared during the entire analyzing period (1997Q1～2004Q4), and it issurmised that the structural change had also occurred between 1Q of 2000 and 3Qof 2003. In order to provide supportive statement in deducing CUSUMSQ test, the Chow test was performed as well. F value in the Chow test was found to be the highest in the 4Q of 2002(N1: 24, N2: 8), this period of the time precisely showsif there were a difference between before the period and after the period. Due to the occurrence of SARS in 1Q of 2003, the room demand of foreigners had decreased by 24.12% than the previous quarter. Also, it was found to be one of the reasons for the greatest impact on the result.