ARIMA기법을 통한 질병증후군의 관광수요 영향력 연구

Effect of the SARS Illness on Demand for Tourism: An Application of ARIMA Model

The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome(SARS) has struck on tourism industry in South Korea. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the mysterious illness on visitors to South Korea. Authors research suggests a model for measuring the impact of SARS on South Korea's inbound demand during and immediately following the outbreak(March 2003 to July 2003). The forecasts, based on the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA) model, are then compared with the actual volume of the visitors arrival. The empirical results indicate that during these affected months, South Korea's international tourism industry was hardly hit by the disease.