아웃바운드 관광수요 모형의 선정

Estimating the Outbound Tourism Demand Model

This paper is to choose the most suitable model for the outbound tourism. The destinations considered are China, Japan, United States, Thailand, Philippines, Hongkong and Singapore, The six OLS models were considered to undertake an empirical investigation. Variables used to cover 1995 to 2006 consist of monthly observations of exchange rates, outbound tourists, price levels and industrial production index. The regression analysis shows that model 1, model 2, and model 3 are not suitable for estimating the tourism demand. Author found that the model 4 was the most suitable one of the three models through the variance decomposition.