지수평활모형간 정확도 비교

Comparison of Accuracy among Exponential Smoothing Models: Application of Pegels’ and Gardner’s Smoothing Models

The primary purpose of this paper is to compare accuracy of various exponential smoothing models in order to suggest the best forecasting model, together with appling exponential smoothing model proposed by Pegels and Gardner. To this end, quarterly tourist time series data for Japanese and Chinese tourists were used from the period 1992:1-2007:4. Accuracy of forecasts was evaluated by the measures of MAPE and Theil's U statistics. The empirical results show that Pegels' and Gardner's models outperformed other competing smoothing models. In particular, multiplicative trend models for Chinese tourists performed best, while no trend and damped trend models outperformed other models in testing period.