동북아 역내 제조업의 글로벌 공급망 변화와 특징 분석

Analysis of Changes and Characteristics of the Global Supply Chain Between Korea, China and Japan

Purpose: This paper analyzes how the manufacturing supply chain has changed over the past 20 years according to the trilateral division of labor between Korea, China and Japan. Also, by measuring changes in the trade structure and competitiveness between Korea, China and Japan during the same period, the effect on the changes in the supply chain between the three countries is examined. Research design, data, and methodology: This study analyzes the trade structure, export competitiveness, and supply and distribution structure of 10 manufacturing industries in Korea, China and Japan. The analysis period was set from 2000 to 2020. The statistics use the UN Comtrade and the Asian International Input-Output Table. In the analysis of the trade structure between Korea, China and Japan. The Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index was introduced to analyze the trade structure between Korea, China and Japan. And for the supply chain structure between the three countries, the Leontief inverse multiplier decomposition of the International Input-Output Analysis was used. Results: As a result of the analysis, it was observed that the supply chain of the manufacturing industry between Korea, China and Japan has changed to an interdependent structure since 2010, and the reason for this is that the production technology gap between the three countries has been greatly reduced. Accordingly, the supply chain of the manufacturing industry between the three countries has shifted from the past one-way dependence structure to a two-way dependence structure. In terms of industry, the deepening dependence among the three countries centered on electrical/electromechanical machinery, metal products, general machinery, chemical products, transportation machinery, precision machinery and textile products, which are key export industries for both Korea, China and Japan, means that the supply and distribution structure is being strengthened. Implications: Considering the relationship between the supply chain between Korea, China and Japan from 2000 to 2020, institutional integration, such as the trilateral FTA, is delayed, but functional integration is deepening due to interdependence and complementarity and increased production and trade. However, if trade frictions or disputes between Korea, China and Japan occur between specific countries, it is interpreted that this can lead to negative effects, so-called big losses, not only for the country concerned but also for the other country.