북한 핵문제와 주변국의 향후 정책 전망

The problem of North Korea's Nucleus and Policy View of Surrounding States

2002년 북한의 우라늄 농축에 의한 비밀 핵개발 의혹이 제기됨에 따라 ‘제네바 핵합의’ 틀이 파기되고 북핵해결을 위한 새로운 협상 틀로서 다자협상 즉 6자회담이 추진되었다. 이후 3차에 걸친 6자회담이 개최되어 북한 핵문제의 해결을 위한 협상이 진행되었지만 합의도출에는 실패하였다. 이어 제2기 부시행정부가 다소 유연한 대북자세를 보이는 등 4차 6자회담 개최 가능성이 높아지고 있는 상황에서 북한은 지난 2월 10일 외무성 성명을 통해서 6자회담 무기한 중단과 핵보유를 선언함으로써 6자회담 개최가 불투명하게 되었을 뿐만 아니라 또 한 차례의 위기 상황이 조성되고 있다. 따라서 본고는 북한이 외무성 성명을 통한 핵보유 선언이라는 극단정책을 구사하고 나선 배경과 특성을 분석, 평가하고 이와 관련한 관련국의 입장과 정책을 분석한 후 향후 북한입장을 전망하고자 한다.

In 1994 North Korea and the United States signed an agreement in Geneva where Pyongyang pledges to freeze and eventually dismantle its nuclear weapons program in exchange for international aid to build two power-producing nuclear reactors. But The Bush administration reveals in October 2002 that Pyongyang had admitted operating a secret nuclear weapons program in violation of the 1994 agreement, and the United States, Japan and South Korea halted oil supplies to North Korea promised under a 1994 deal in November 2002. So, North Korea removed in December 2002 monitoring seals and cameras from its nuclear facilities and expels the watchdog agency's inspectors. The tension in Korean peninsula was highly increased, so since February 2004, the United States, the two Koreas, China, Japan and Russia have held three rounds of talks in Pekin aimed at persuading the North to abandon its nuclear weapons development in return for economic and diplomatic rewards. But no significant progress was reported in those talks, all hosted by China, and a fourth round of talks in September 2004 was postponed indefinately when North Korea refused to attend, citing what it called a “hostile” U.S. policy. So far, the United States had opposed North Korea's demands that it hold one-to-one nuclear talks, saying that multilateral diplomatic approach is required. In this context, North Korea declared on February 10, 2005 that it will “bolster its nuclear weapons arsenal,” in response to what it said were U.S. efforts to topple its government. U.S. diplomats took an benign-nelect attitude at first saying that North Korea has used similar language when stepping aside from anti-nuclear proliferation talks in the past, although it is the first time that Pyongyang has been so explicit about its development of nuclear weapons. But U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said if efforts to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program fail, Washington and the international community will pursue “other ways.” So, this article will examine the backgrounds of the North Korea's Declaration of nuclear weapons development, analyse the positions of neighboring concerned countries and present some prospects for the North Korea's foreign policy in pursuit of its survival in the near future.