시계열 자료를 이용한 중국인의 제주방문수요 결정요인 분석

An analysis of time-series data on the determinants of inbound tourism demand from China to Jeju

Analyzing monthly time series data accumulated for 8 years from January 2002 to December 2009, this study examined the inbound tourism demand from China to Jeju Island. The unit root test was conducted to determine the stationary of the time series data. Results of Granger Causality Test indicated that the number of air routes between Jeju Island and China were interactively and steadily associated with the inbound tourism demand. Results also showed that the income of Chinese people appeared to have impact on their demand for the visit to Jeju Island. Furthermore, Chinese people's demand for the visit to Jeju Island appeared to have impact on the number of travel agencies in Korea Finally, estimation, based on the Ordinary Least Squares(OLS) method indicated that the income, exchange rate, increase of transportation and travel agencies made positive impact on the inbound tourism demand. In particular, the exchange rate was estimated to have greatest influence on Chinese people's demand for the visit to Jeju Island1.