아시아 주요국의 방한수요 변동성 연구

The Volatility of Inbound Tourism Demands for Korea from Major Asian Countries

This study examined the volatility of inbound tourism demands for Korea from major Asian countries. In this study, Asian countries were grouped into Greater China Area countries(China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) and other Asian countries (Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia). 132 monthly time series data from 2000 to 2010 on the number of tourists from the countries to Korea were used for the analysis. Results of unit root test suggested rejection of the null hypothesis on the non-stationarity of the level variables. In addition, results of the OLS regression showed that the tourism demands for Korea from most of the countries had seasonality. Furthermore, in terms of the model fit, Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional- Heteroscedastic Model(EGARCH Model) fit data better than the other two models(TARCH, GARDCH Models) both for the Greater and the other Asian countries. Finally, results indicated that the unexpected bad news on Korea tended to cause more demand shocks or volatility for Great China Area countries than the good news did. Practical implications of this study were also discussed.