방한 항공입국수요의 장기적 결정변수에 대한 충격반응 분석

Impulse Response Analysis on the Long Term Factors of South Korea by the Air Inbound Visitors from Japan, China and USA

This study was to identify the long term determinant factors of inbound tourism by airline. It also examined the determinant factors' recursive effects. Using quarterly time series data(1999-2009) of air inbound visitors from China, Japan and USA to Korea, VAR model and consequential impulse response function were tested to examine the relative importance of the determinants and their durability. Contrary to the previous literature, foreign exchange rate was not a significant determinant factor of the demand. In contrast, the income level of China and Japan, which were measured by each country's GDP, significantly and substantially influenced on the demand in the two lag terms. Even tough, all the other macro variables were found to be influential on the demand with three and four lag terms, they were not substantial and disappeared after nine lag terms. Results also showed a significant and substantial variation in the size of coefficients and in the length of durability among the three countries as to the determinants' impacts on tourism demand. These results strongly suggest that idiosyncratic response may be pertinent to the variation of inbound tourism demand.