메가 이벤트의 수요예측을 위한 실현율 산출

Estimating the Rate of Actual Visit Behavior to Visit Intention for Forecasting Mega Event Demand

The purpose of this study was to estimate the rate of actual visit behavior to visit intention of visitors to the Expo 2012 Yeosu(hereafter Yeosu Expo). To this end an onsite survey was conducted to 3,000 residents of 16 metropolitan cities and provinces using a quota sampling based on population, gender, and age. As a first step, the rate of visit intention to the Yeosu Expo was estimated by dividing respondents with visit intention by total respondents. As a second step, the rate of actual visit behavior was estimated by dividing actual visitors by respondents with visit intention. The results of this study revealed that the rate of actual visit behavior was estimated to be 50.2% in which the rate consisted of 62.8% for respondents with strong visit intention and 44.9% for respondents with somewhat visit intention. The results also showed that generally the closer the distance to mega event site, the higher the rate of actual visit behavior as indicated by the Gravity model. It is expected that the rate of actual visit behavior will make a significant contribution to accurately forecasting tourism and event demand.