확률론적 시스템다이내믹스 방법을 활용한 호텔개발사업 재무적 타당성 분석의 주요 영향 변수와 영향력 분석

Analysis of Key Influential Variables and Their Impacts on Hotel Development Project Financial Feasibility Analysis Using Stochastic System Dynamics Method

The purpose of this study is to identify major influential variables and their impacts on financial feasibility analysis for hotel development applying the stochastic system dynamics method. To develop a model, 1) the boundary of system model was set and variables that compose the system were determined, 2) Causal Loop Diagram(CLD) which explains the casual relationships among variables was formulated, 3) Stock Flow Diagram(SFD) was developed based on the CLD and 4) SFD model was confirmed through verification of its soundness and objectivity. Finally, confirmed model was applied to the typical hotel development project of Hotel A in order to identify major influential variables and their impacts on feasibility analysis. Variables such as number of employees per guest room, expenses per employee, monthly earnings from ancillary facilities and occupancy rates of ancillary facilities were identified as more influential variable than others. This study shows the usefulness of the stochastic system dynamics model in drawing more influential variables and in reflecting diverse variables and scenarios for financial feasibility analysis for hotel development. To make the model more predictable it is required to conduct consistent research by adopting additional variables and applying developed model to various hotel development projects.