CGE 모델의 시뮬레이션기법을 이용한 관광산업의 경제적 효과분석

Estimating the Economic Impact of the Tourism Industry by using a CGE Modeling Approach: The Case of the 2002 World Cup

The purpose of this study was to utilize a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the economic impact of the 2002 FIFA World Cup on the tourism industry. Toward this end, this study employed ORANI-F as a basic framework that was calibrated to input-output (I-O) tables, and then the base year 2000 I-O data were updated through historical simulation for impact analysis. Then, tourism multipliers were derived from the updated I-O tables by using CGE simulation. The results of the CGE analysis indicated that World Cup tourists’ expenditure of US$522 million generated US$1.57 billion in output (sales), $290 million in income, $683 million in value added, $88 million in indirect tax, and an equivalent of 24,543 full-time jobs as a result of direct, indirect, and induced impacts.