전시관람수요의 결정요인

Determinants of Visitors’ Demand for Exhibition: An Application of Truncated Count Data Model

A dependent variable that is defined on the non-negative integers and subject to sampling truncation is the result of a truncated count data process. This paper analyzes the effects of determinants on visitors’ demand for exhibition using a class of maximum-likelihood regression estimators for count data from truncated samples. Estimators for the truncated Poisson and truncated negative binomial distributions are illustrated. The models are applied to data from visitors who participate in the exhibition shows held at COEX. The analysis suggests that the truncated negative binomial model is more preferred, demonstrating a clear improvement in terms of internalizing the problem associated with overdispersion. On the basis of the results from the model, choice characteristics, subjects of exhibitions preferred, types of visitation, and travel cost are among the significant determinants of the demand. The empirical influences of explanatory variables on the demand are also examined by calculating the marginal effects.