관광수요와 관광수지의 예측

Forecasting Tourism Demand and Tourist Balance

At present there are numerous forecasting methods available. After reviewing these methods, this study estimates the Korean outbound and inbound tourists based on the econometric models. Two types of quantitative forecasting models were considered in this paper, time series and causal econometric model. The paper proceeds by comparing the forecasting performances of the structural models with those of the nonstructural model such as Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, concluding that the former outperforms the latter. Author also shows that while the outbound tourists increase rapidly, the inbound tourists increase slowly and the balance of trade deficit is expected to grow fast.