한국 관광서비스산업의 솔로우잔차항과 실질임금의 경기순환성에 실증분석

The Cyclicality of Solow’s Residuals and Real Wages in the Korean Tourism Service Industries: An Empirical Analysis (1975-2010)

This paper establishes the empirical model based on Hall’s(1990) and Basu’s(1996)models, estimates Solow’s residual in the two tourism service industries which are retail·foods·lodging and transportation·communication over the period 1975:1-2010:4, and analyzes the cyclicality of measured Solow’s residual. The empirical results are summarized as the followings. First, the annual growth rates of Solow’s residual were estimated to be,in average, 2.84% in retail·foods·lodging and ╶1.99% in transportation·communication. Second, the correlation coefficients with the HP-filtered GDP showed the Solow’s residual in the two tourism service industries to be countercyclical. Third, the annual rates of growth in real wage are measured to be, in average, 5.12% in retail·foods·lodging and 4.98% in transport·communication. And the correlation coefficients between Solow’s residual and real wage proved to be –0.5638 in retail·lodging and ╶0.6465 in transportation·commu–nication. The comparison of productivity growth rate with real wage rate lesds us to the conclusion taht real wages have been increased overly in the tourism service industries.