패널로짓모형을 통한 아파트 전세시장 역전세 연구

A Study on the Jeonsei Deposit Loss in Rental Housing Market Using Panel Logit Model

(Purpose) In the housing rental market, we can see a pattern that what is so called, Jeonsei deposit loss(the reverse Jeonse phenomenon) is periodically repeated. The purpose of this study is to diagnose the factors that cause Jeonsei deposit loss in the domestic housing rental market. (Design/methodology/approach) Jeonsei deposit loss is defined as a decrease in the Jeonse price compared to the previous 24 months. Through previous studies, the main influencing factors of Jeonsei deposit loss were selected as apartment move-in volume, housing unsold, business cycle fluctuation (composite leading indicators index), Jeonse price/sale price ratio, sales price fluctuation rate, and interest rate. A panel logit model was set up to analyze the causes of Jeonsei deposit loss. (Findings) As a result of the analysis, it is found that Jeonsei deposit loss occurs repeatedly in a cycle of about 5 years and is affected by macro-environmental factors such as economic fluctuations, interest rate hikes, etc. On the other hand, internal factors in the housing market, such as an increase in the number of move-in volume and a decrease in sales prices, which are supply factors, appear to be factors that aggravate Jeonsei deposit loss. On the other hand, in the case of unsold apartments, there was a certain time lag with the housing market, which had a statistically negative(-) effect. (Research implications or Originality) The implications of this study are as follows. Despite the periodic occurrence of Jeonsei deposit loss trend, counter-measures against Jeonsei deposit loss are insufficient. Accordingly, it provides a guarantee service for non-return of the Jeonse deposit, and it is necessary to actively utilize this guarantee service for non-return of the Jeonse deposit. Therefore, relevant efforts are required to reduce the volatility of the Jeonse price as Jeonsei deposit loss is due to the reversal of the Jeonse deposit between the contract date and the contract expiration date.