“一带一路”背景下的滇藏沿边国家恐怖主义风险标识和发展趋势: 基于GTD数据和GTI指数的ArcGIS标识和Excel趋势外推分析法

Risk Identification and Development trend of Terrorism of Yunnan and Tibet’s Neighboring Countries Under the Background of The “Belt and Road” Initiative: Based on GTD and GTI’s ArcGIS Identification and Trend extrapolation analysis

This paper aimed to identify the terrorism and its development trend of the neighboring countries which border on China’s Yunnan and Tibet provinces. It based on China's “Belt and Road” Initiative to promote economic and trade cooperation and cultural exchanges between provinces and cities in China and neighboring countries, especially in the context of the increasing exchanges and cooperation between Yunnan and Tibet provinces and border countries. ArcGIS software is used to identify 2013-2017 years' GTD data and GTI index, and through the Excel trend extrapolation analysis method, the development trend of terrorism in these countries has been derived. The results show that in 2013-2017, the area of high and potential high risks of terrorism are mainly concentrated in Pakistan and India in South Asia, area of medium risks are concentrated in Nepal in South Asia and Myanmar in South Asia, while the risks of terrorism in Bhutan, Laos and Vietnam in South Asia is relatively low. At the same time, it drew the conclusion that the terrorism risk of each country along the Yunnan-Tibet border will show different development trends after 2018. Based on this, the paper finally put forward some concluding suggestions to prevent the risk of terrorism in the border areas of Yunnan and Tibet and to promote China's “Belt and Road” Initiative cooperation.