본 논문은 OECD 무역행렬 자료를 이용하여 제조업 19개 산업에서 한국과 주요 EU국가(즉, 독일, 프랑스, 이탈리아, 네덜란드)의 무역결합도, 무역보완도 및 국별편향도를 측정하고 2012~2019년 동안 어떠한 변화가 있었는지 분석하였다. 본 연구의 분석 대상 상품을 소비재, 중간재, 자본재 등으로 분류하기 위해 UN의 상품분류 체계를 활용하여 OECD에서 집계하는 HS 6-digit 분류와 일치시켜 분석에 활용하였다. 분석 기간 동안 독일, 이탈리아, 프랑스와의 무역결합도는 증가한 반면 네덜란드와의 무역결합도는 감소하였다. 무역결합도의 변화요인을 무역보완도와 국별편향도로 분해하여 분석하였다. 경제협력 증진을 위해서는 국별 특성을 감안하여 전략적 접근이 필요하며 다행스럽게도 한-EU 자유무역협정(FTA)이 2011년 7월부터 잠정적용 되어 2015년 12월 정식 비준됐다. 따라서 한국과 EU 국가 모두 (a) 자본 이동 및 경제 협력을 늘리고 (b) 한국과 GNIF 간의 차별적 관세 및 기타 수입 제한을 해제하여 주요 EU 국가에 대한 한국의 국별편향도를 강화하는데 노력해야 할 것이다.
This paper analyzes how South Korea’s trade intensity with her major EU trading countries (i.e., Germany, Netherlands, Italy, and France, GNIF in short hereafter) in 19 industries of the manufacturing sector changed over time for the period of 2012-2019. For this purpose, trade intensity index, trade complementarity index, and special country bias index between South Korea and GNIF were measured and analyzed by a trade intensity index model. The 6-digit level OECD trade data of Harmonized System (HS) were used as data. South Korea's trade intensity with Germany was found to increase from 0.372 in 2012 to 0.400 in 2019 due to (a) the increase in South Korea's special country bias with Germany from 0.377 in 2012 to 0.390 in 2019 and (b) the increase in South Korea’s trade complementarity with Germany from 0.987 in 2012 to 1.026 in 2019. South Korea's trade intensity with Netherlands turned out to decrease from 0.577 in 2012 to 0.474 in 2019 mainly due to the decrease in South Korea's special country bias with Netherlands from 0.603 in 2012 to 0.510 in 2019. South Korea's trade intensity with Italy turned out to increase from 0.471 in 2012 to 0.490 in 2019 mainly due to the increase in South Korea's trade complementarity with Italy from 0.910 in 2012 to 0.962 in 2019. Finally, South Korea’s trade intensity with France was found to increase from 0.226 in 2012 to 0.274 in 2019 mainly due to (a) the increase in South Korea’s special country bias with France from 0.226 in 2012 to 0.281 in 2019. Very fortunately the EU-South Korea free trade agreement (FTA) had provisionally applied since July 2011 before it was formally ratified in December 2015. Therefore both South Korea and EU countries should do their utmost in enhancing South Korea's special country bias with GNIF by (a) increasing capital movements and economic cooperation and (b) lifting discriminatory tariffs and other import restrictions between South Korea and GNIF.
Ⅰ. Introduction
Ⅱ. Literature Review
Ⅲ. Data and Methodology
Ⅳ. Findings
Ⅴ. Concluding Remarks