서울 동남권과 경기 남부지역 신도시 아파트 가격변동 특성 비교 연구

A Comparative Study on the Price Change Characteristics of Apartment in Southeastern Seoul and Southern Gyeonggi Province

Recognizing the importance of the housing market in the Seoul metropolitan area, this study conducted a time series study based on the theory of the housing submarket in the southern part of Gyeonggi-do apartment markets in the metropolitan area in terms of diversity in research. The main research results derived from the empirical analysis results are as follows. First, through the Grandeur causality test, the sale price of apartments in the southeastern part of Seoul was confirmed as the cause variable, and the sale price of apartments in Bundang, Pangyo, Gwanggyo, and Dongtan was confirmed as the result variable, and the causal relationship existed. Second, through the results of shock response analysis and variance decomposition analysis, it was found that apartment sales prices in Bundang, Pangyo, Gwanggyo, and Dongtan were greatly affected by the southeastern region of Seoul. Third, the results of impact response analysis and distributed decomposition analysis showed that the four regions of Bundang, Pangyo, Gwanggyo, and Dongtan had a mutual influence relationship. The research results showed how the housing market in the Seoul metropolitan area changed until 2022 after the long-term recession after the global financial crisis in late 2008, and the significance of the study was found in that it confirmed the relationship between regions in southern Gyeonggi Province.