실물옵션을 활용한 부동산 개발사업의 경제성 분석

An Analysis of the Economy of a Real Estate Development with Real Options

국내 부동산시장은 정책, 금융위기 등 세계 경제와 흐름에 불규칙적인 양상을 나타내는 등의변동성이 강한 성질을 보유하고 있는데 반하여 이를 평가하는 전통적인 경제성 분석방법은 불확실성에 따른 가치의 인식과 다양한 분석에 근본적인 한계를 가지고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 오피스빌딩 개발사업에 대한 투자가 갖는 편익의 불확실성과 비가역성을 고려하여 실물옵션을 이용한 경제성 분석이 투자자에게 직접적이고 유용한 정보를 창출할 수 있는 도구를 제공한다는 점에 의의를 두고 있다. 특히 다양하게 적용되어지는 실물옵션 기법 중 이항옵션가격결정모형을 적용하여 공기업 “A”사의 오피스빌딩 개발사례로 실증분석을 진행하였다. 분석결과에의하면 NPV법만으로도 경제성이 확보되는 것으로 나타났으나 사업에 가장 크게 영향을 미치는 요소로 가정한 공실률의 변동성을 감안하는 사업 가치를 산정한 결과 경제성 확보는 물론 옵션을 포함하는 경우 사업의 가치가 증가하는 것으로 평가되었다. 이를 통해 실물옵션을 이용한 경제성 분석은 개발사업의 가치를 다양한 상황에서 고려함으로써 의사결정에 대한 유연성을 보다 높일 수 있음을 제시하였다.

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The objective of this research is to explore the uncertainty and the irreversibility of the benefits of investment in the office building development project and to find that the economic analysis using real options provides investors with a tool to create direct and useful information. (2) RESEARCH METHOD An empirical analysis was conducted on the office building being developed by Company A, which is a state-owned company. The economic feasibility was analyzed using the DCF(Discounted Cash Flow) method. In an actual project, it is difficult to identify the time of when the project will be completed, and the possibilities of events which may occur are infinite. To consider such factors, an infinite number of options are respectively applied in real options in the economic analysis. The value of the option of the development project was projected along with the optimal investment time. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS It was found in the research that in the case of European options, the economic feasibility was secured only with the NPV(Net Present Value) method. Considering the volatility of the vacancy rate, which is presumed to have the greatest impact on development projects, the project value including the options was calculated. The value of the project increased, and the economic feasibility was secured by accommodating the volatility of the future uncertainty and the strategic value of the project. 2. RESULTS The disadvantage of European options, which are used in the analysis of the economic feasibility of a real estate development project, is that European options can be exercised only on a pre-determined maturity date. To complement the disadvantage, American options which may be exercised at any time were analyzed in this research. It is explained that American options may be an alternative, which provides flexibility in decision-making by allowing more objective decision making from an investor's point of view. It was examined whether the empirical data from the analysis of Company A is applicable to actual projects. The research proposes practical measures for project developers for the investment and the implementation. The research also suggests the necessity for the qualitative review of the contribution to the public development, through decision making based on quantitative analysis. The data on the vacancy rate, which shows the profitability of the business, was obtained. The condition of the current real estate market was reflected more realistically by surveying and applying the changes in the vacancy rates over 48 quarterly periods, and the ultimate research result could be presented more reliably. A further inquiry is needed on the fact that the volatility of the vacancy rate used in this research has a significant effect on the valuation, which is left as a subject for future research.