가축 및 인간 질병 동시 발생에 따른 돈육 소비자 가격 영향 분석

Impact of Concurrent Outbreaks of Livestock and Human Disease on Pork Consumer Price

This study analyzes comprehensive impacts of concurrent outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF) and COVID-19 on pork consumer prices. For this study, we collect three time series data composed of the number of pigs culled by farms with ASF, the sentiment index for COVID-19 driven by big data sentiment analysis using on-line news texts, and the consumer price of pork belly. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are constructed under three cases according to the presence of diseases. Results show the followings: first, the pork consumer price is affected negatively by ASF but positively by COVID-19. Second, the absolute impact of COVID-19 on price is bigger than that of ASF. Third, a comprehensive model considering both ASF and COVID-19 provides more reasonable results than models considering only one of both diseases.