국제 원유 가격이 중국물가에 미치는 영향

The Effects of International Oil Prices on China`s Price Indices

This paper investigates the impact of oil price shock on three domestic price indices such as import price index(IPI), producer price index(PPI) and consumer price index(CPI). According to the results of estimated 5-variable VAR model which utilized monthly data from 2000.1 to 2014.7, international oil price does Granger-cause IPI and PPI, but the lags of oil price do not enter into the equation for CPI. The accumulated impulse response analysis shows that the responses of one standard deviation shock of oil price result in 1.435%, 0.319% and 0.107% increases in import, producer and consumer price index after three years, respectively. The results of variance decomposition indicate that the influence of oil price to producer price index is much bigger than the import and consumer price indices.