中国通货膨胀成因分析: 基于SVAR模型的检验

The cause analysis of the chinese inflation: Based on the SVAR model

本文通过对 2001—2011年四十四个季度的宏观数据，运用演绎归纳的思路剔除了不 显著的影响因素，设定了相对精确的计量模型，然后通过协整检验和SVAR框架进行实 证检验，分析了长期和短期中过剩流动性，外汇占款，经济增长缺口,劳动力成本和汇 率变动对国内通货膨胀的影响程度。结果表明:治理当前我国通货膨胀的关键在于防止 经济过热，控制投资规模和对冲外汇占款。

Based on the 2001-2011 forty four quarters macro data, using deductive and inductive thinking does not exclude a significant factor, setting a relatively precise measurement model, and then through empirical framework for co-integration test and SVAR inspection, analysis of long-term and short-term excess liquidity, foreign exchange, economic growth gap, labor costs and the degree of exchange rate movements on domestic inflation. The results showed that: China's current inflation is a key governance is to prevent the economy from overheating, control the scale of investment and hedge foreign exchange.