북한의 핵사용-단기 속전속결 전략 대비 한국의 신 작전개념 수행방안 구상

ROK’s New Military Operational Concept against DPRK’s Nuke Use-Surprise Offensive Strategy

본 논문은 북한정권이 핵미사일을 향후 상당히 많이 보유하고, 그 핵무기 사용을 기존의전략(기습공격, 전후방동시전장화, 속전속결전략)에 배합하면 초단기(예: 3일) 서울 점령시나리오도 가능하다고 공표한데 대하여, 그 가능성을 현실적으로 평가하였다. 이에 대한 우리의 역 비대칭적 대응 작전개념으로 한반도 전구차원의 센서-슈터 네트워크 체계에 의한‘중심마비 신속결정작전’을 구상, 최단기간(예: X=3일) 내 평양점령작전을 수행하는 시나리오를 개념적으로 제시하였다. 이 시나리오는 북한 핵에 대한 핵 대응은 미국의 핵우산이100% 확실하게 제공된다는 것을 전제하고, 한국이 향후 10년 간 GDP대비 3% 수준의 국방비를 투입하여 첨단 비핵 억제전력을 획기적으로 증강하면, 비핵전력 면에서 한국이 북한을최소 3배 이상 압도할 수 있을 것이라고 가정하였다.

This paper evaluates whether the North’s 3-day war threat remains rhetoric or can be reasonable when it combines its' old conventional military strategy and new nuke use strategy. Also, this paper finds that ROK should recognize the reality of the threat as a worst scenario and prepare for that. ROK needs to remember that the North has frequently threatened ROK in the past that it has full capability and willingness to occupy Seoul in very short time period such as 5~7 days with its conventional military strategy, which combined surprise attack, integrated the front battle and the rear one, and quick decisive operation. ROK should seriously consider the North's new 3-day war threat and prepare for it perfectly if at all possible. This paper lays out ROK’s new military operational concept which can rapidly and decisively destruct DPRK’s 3-day war plan with shock and paralysis. This concept is based on ROK’s high technology sensors to shooters network capability which can make a new asymmetric superiority to the North in future military confrontations. For this operation concept to be successfully actualized, we need some preconditions as follows: Washington should provide 100% nuclear umbrella firmly and Seoul should maintain defense budget at least 3% of the GDP every year for next 10 years: it should develop its conventional capability three times stronger than that of North Korea without considering nuclear capability. We wish that this ROK’s new military operational concept can contribute to make the North abandon its reckless nuclear development and also to effectively deter North Korea's future provocations.