How Should the ROK and the US Stabilize a Peace Regime in the Korean Peninsula and Build a Stable Security Environment in Northeast Asia in order to Promote and Shape the Satisfactory Unification of the Korean Peninsula?

How Should the ROK and the US Stabilize a Peace Regime in the Korean Peninsula and Build a Stable Security Environment in Northeast Asia in order to Promote and Shape the Satisfactory Unification of the Korean Peninsula?

In South Korea, concerns for unification are rapidly growing. Understandably, execution of Jang Sung Taek addressed the question of North Korean domestic political stability for outside watchers. The event of Jang’s execution itself does not tell if this will contribute to the unification. Kim Jung Un’s power may have been consolidated by this action. Roughly speaking, there are two scenarios of unification, if that happens. One is the unification by absorption following systemic collapse of North Korea. The second scenario is the process of gradual unification. In both scenarios, what is essential is that to confirm deterrence to military provocations and the development of nuclear programs. The cooperation with the United States is essential here and to continue strategic dialogue with China is also necessary. What is to be noted is that North Korean contingency will not automatically lead to unification. To facilitate the unification, not only strong military preparedness, but also long-term perspective on the new governance on the Korean Peninsula is crucial. If South Korea tries to unify the North, or set up a new form of governance and peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, the pace or schedule for economic integration, political coordination, and finally uniting the sovereignty should be predetermined and those schedule should be closely connected to the contingency plan. China will not consent to the idea of unification unless there is a clear picture of unified Korea’s foreign policy which will not harm Chinese national interests. Also many forces in North Korea, most of all North Korean people, will embrace South Korea’s initiative for unification. Apart from the case of unification after contingency, South Korea needs to prepare overall, long-term North Korea policy and strategy of unification. Unification by absorption is based on the prediction which may not be fulfilled. Unfortunately we do not possess appropriate data to precisely evaluate North Korea’s resilience and durability. Then, the core of South Korea’s North Korea policy needs to be based upon long-term engagement plan and unification formula.