오바마 정부 출범 이후 북핵문제와 우리의 대응책

Policy Options for North Korean Nuclear Threats: After the Inauguration of Obama Administration

오바마 행정부가 2009년 1월 출범하자 북핵 해결을 위해 포괄적 미북협상이 촉진될 것으로 기대되었으나, 북한이 4월 5일 대포동-2호로 의심받는 장거리 로켓을 발사해 사태가 악화되었다. 유엔안보리는 4월 14일 의장성명으로 로켓 발사가 대북제재의 기존 결의안 1718호 위반이라고 밝혔다. 이에 반발해 북한은 5월 25일 2차 핵실험을 감행하였다. 유엔안보리는 6월 12일 더욱 강력한 대북제재를 포함한 결의안 1874호를 채택하였다. 한미 양국 등 국제사회는 북한 도발에 제재를 가하면서 핵협상 복귀를 촉구하고 있다. 반면 북한은 핵시설 재가동, 플루토늄 전량 무기화, 우라늄농축 활동 위협을 가하고 있다. 이에 향후 북핵 시니리오를 갈등국면 고착, 협상국면으로 전환, 위기국면으로 비화로 제시하면서 우리의 정책적 대응방향을 제시하고 있음.

It was expected that the Obama Administration would promote, after its inauguration in January 2009, US-DPRK dialogues and negotiations in comprehensive package-deal manner, and that it might reach an ultimate nuclear agreement more easily than before. However, the DPRK took provocative actions, by launching long-range rocket suspected of as Taepodong-2 missile on April 5, 2009. Subsequently, the UNSC adopted its Chairman's announcement that North Korea violated the existing Resolution 1718 of the UNSC, which calls for UN members to impose economic sanctions against North Korea. Criticizing and retorting to this announcement, North Korea surprisingly dared to conduct its second nuclear test on May 25, 2009. Hence, the UNSC adopted its Resolution 1874 which includes very robust and tough economic sanctions on the trade with the DPRK. Experts suggest several reasons why the DPRK showed deviant behaviors despite the dove-like gesture from the Obama administration; the technological upgrade of manufacturing nuclear bombs, the official securing of the status of nuclear weapon state, the reinforcement of its bargaining leverage while pressing the US to hold bilateral talks with the DPRK, and the stabilization of political power succession from Kim Jong-Il. After the second nuclear test, the international community, including the US and ROK, focuses on economic sanctions against North Korea, while urging the DPRK to return to nuclear talks such as six-party talks for nuclear counter-proliferation. There are three situational scenarios on the future of the DPRK nuclear problems. Those are the scenario of conflict stalemate, the scenario of nuclear bargaining, and the scenario of crisis escalation. This article suggests which policy directions the ROK should choose to confront each scenario.