미국과 북한의 핵 억지전략과 한국의 대응전략

Nuclear Deterrence Strategy of the DPRK and the United States and the ROK's National Security

North Korea nuclear problem is the major security threat to South Korea since the end of the Korean war and also, could trigger a significant change of the status quo on the Korean peninsula. Generally believed that North Korea produced a few dozen kilograms of plutonium and weaponized them into nuclear devices, North Korea nuclear problem of today is not just a diplomatic or unification issue but a genuine security danger. At the same time, the Bush Administration has revised the traditional nuclear deterrence strategy based on mutual assured destruction, reflecting a new security environment of the 21st century. The U.S. deterrence strategy and South Korea have been tied up in close and mutual ways. On the one hand, at its inception, the massive retaliation strategy--the U.S. deterrence strategy of the 1950s--was profoundly influenced by the Korean War. On the other hand, South Korea's military strategy and posture have been under the influence of this strategy up to now. This study investigates impacts on South Korean security by North Korea's nuclear possession and the U.S. new deterrence strategy, and proposes the South's responsive measures. On the Korean peninsula where the two nuclear strategies are crossed over, South Korea should take the following strategic measures. First, considering current and potential threats, it should devise and develop its own deterrence strategy. Second, it should maintain and strengthen the U.S.-ROK alliance. The bilateral security alliance is a key to have Seoul be on a strategic par with Pyongyang. Third, nonproliferation diplomacy should be reinforced to overwhelm North Korea's nuclear threat on the diplomatic front and to resolve international suspicion over South Korea's nuclear intentions. Finally, a set of specific measures should be undertaken in the areas of North Korea policy and WMD nonproliferation.