[기획연구] 미국의 대외 정책 결정과정에 관한 연구

A Study on the United States's Foreign Policy Decision Making Process

If we look into carefully a country's decision making process for foreign policy, we can find out core factors and major actors affecting country's policy decision making process and therefore; estimate, adjust, and cope with the country's policy directions; and reduce the irrationality of a country's policy decision making process. The objective of this study is to research foreign policy decision making process of a country. The Gulf War and Iraq War case were chosen for this research where they were the representative cases of the coercive diplomatic policy in the United States today. The reasons of this selection are following; The unilateral military coercive diplomacy becomes a core direction of the United States's foreign policy after The September 11, 2001 Terror. Also, the two war cases have commonalities such as the results of the coercive diplomacy, the war between the United States and Iraq and the war broken out under the Republican administrations who were in conservative political tendency. On the other hand, the Gulf War was broken out by the Iraq's invasion to the other country, while the Iraq War was started by the United States's preemptive attack against Iraq. Also, both wars were separated by the September 11, 2001 Terror. Consequently, these two wars have distinctive commonalities and differences and therefore, distinguished meaningful conclusion could be expected. The Allison Model was selected for the analysis of foreign policy cases. The Allison Model is available in the access to a certain policy with various points of views such as Rational Actor, Organizational Process and Bureaucratic Politics, respectively and is suitable for research focused on policy making actors, and used largely for researches of foreign policy decision making process under the national-level crisis. The particular goals to achieve through case analyses with the Allison Model are; firstly, to define a policy decision making process model per case; secondly, to extend the Allison model's view through the investigation of analysis and evaluation process; thirdly, to issue political suggestions which are driven from comparative case study. The study focuses on the applicability and theoretical research of the Allison model for the purpose of academical approach for foreign policy decision theory model operated by policy making actors and restricts the scope of study on the policy decision making stage among the policy cycle. Document research, qualitative case study and comparative study are used jointly for this study since the cases are rare, unique, and difficult to measure due to the variety and complexity of factors, neither easy to investigate on site nor experiment. The Gulf War broke out from the intervention of the United States in the Persian Gulf Crisis with consideration of Iraqi's invasion upon Kuwait as the infringement on vital national interests of United States. The United States imposed economic sanctions, gave diplomatic isolation, deployed armed forces, operated air campaigns, and etc. against Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait. These were the typical approach in coercive diplomatic process and had achieved the United States's objectives. The Iraq War broke out from a preemptive strike of the United States to Iraq with claim that Iraq was connected with terror and concealed the weapons of mass destruction. The United States wanted Hussein to disarm completely, gave military and diplomatic coercion to Iraq. On the other hand, the Unites States tried to obtain UN resolution which enables to use military force against Iraq, but they could not obtain the UN resolution. In spite of the failure to obtain the resolution and the international opinions of anti-war and anti-US, the United States attacked Iraq with few Alliances(UK, Australia, etc.) and achieved their objectives removing Hussein and replacement of the political power.