[기획연구] 한국안보에 있어서의 중국

China Factor in the Korean Securiy: Middle and Long Term Perspective

This paper assumes that hereafter 10~20 years China become military power through modernization which corresponding to high economic growth. In this paper, we analyze some correlations between the China's economic growth and military build-up from the mid-long term perspective and the impact of China's military power on Korean Peninsula. In addition, we suggest some possible scenarios which Korea may face in the future and recommend some policy options. In order to analyze both China's economic growth and military build-up from the mid-long term perspective, we assess the past and the present process of economic development and military buildup. We also analyze tendency of China's military build-up and whether there is a correlation between China's military power and economic growth. In predicting future China's economic and military development, we set two time dimensions which are divided into 5-10 and 10-20 years periods as a short-mid term and a mid-long term. This paper focuses primarily on mid-long term dimension which is around the year 2010 and will briefly deal with the outlook of long term dimension after the year 2020. Although it is likely that the two Korea will unified around in 2010 to 2020, we assume that two Koreas still exists in Korean Peninsula. In addition, we set the model with the China-U.S. relationship and that of South-North Korea relationship and analyze how China's military potential impacts on the South Korea in some aspects and how South Korea can cope with it. During the Cold War period, Northeast Asia's security order was based on the East and West confrontatioa However, after the Gold War, security environment has been changing rapidly in Northeast Asia. Particularly, the role of China and Japan became increasing in this regioa The U.S.'s major security concerns in the region are to check and cooperate with China and to reorganize the relations with North Korea to deter North Korea's development of WMD(weapons of mass destruction}. Even though two Koreas have been approaching each other such a cooperative and friendly ways since Kim Dea-jung administration, there is still high military tensions between South and North Korea. After the Cold War, there are still remaining tensions int the Northeast Asian region due to the U.S. policies to restrain China, the potential conflict between China and Taiwan and suspicious North Korea's nuclear weapon development. In particular, the Taiwan strait the Southeast Sea would be the flash points which could bring China and the United States into the military collision. After the reform and open-door policy, national objective of China is becoming strong and unified nations for the mid-long term perspective. Moreover, its national strategy is to avoid the possible military conflict at the peripheral region and to create favorable environment which is based on its economic prosperity with extending friendly relationships with its neighboring nations. However, one of obvious directions of China's mid-long security strategy is to prevent Twain from going to independence and ultimately achieve unified China under PRCs direction. According to the 10th five year plan, China plans to maintain the continuous economic development and to create the foundation of possible increase in GDP of year 2010 which is twice bigger than that of year 2000 by improving the quality of economic growth and productivity. Though its GDP per capita is incomparable to that of Germany, China is planing to catch up with GDP in Germany and to be the 3rd largest economy in the world next to the US. and Japan. China's defense expenditure have increased in more than l0percent in 13 consecutive years since 1989. In particular, China's military budget in 2001 is increased by 17% compare to prior year which is the highest increase rate in recent years. According to “The Military Balance 2000 ?2001” , China's percentage of national defend spendings of GDP is about 5.4 percent, it means