[기획연구] 북한 핵무장의 한보적 파급영향 분석

A Study on the Effects in Security Dimension when North Korea is armed with Nuclear Weapons

According to overall analysis on the current progress of North Korea's nuclear development program up to date, it is certainly shown to be a matter of time that Pyongyang goes to a nuclear state if the world neglects the North's nuclear issue as it is. In case Pyongyang becomes a nuclear state, all the existing approaches of South Korea to resolve the North's nuclear problems imply a strategic failure, and which will enforce Seoul to change its current policy frameworks toward Pyongyang and Washington fundamentally. Major effects for nuclear armed North Korea to be influencing on the security matters of Korean Peninsula are summarized as the three aspects: (1) two Koreas' military forces will show greater imbalance, (2) North Korea's military provocation will be increased, and (3) Seoul will be placed at more disadvantageous position in the unification issue. Due to these effects by the nuclear state Pyongyang, security situation of the Korean Peninsula will be shown as higher tense and higher possibility of a war. North Korea armed with nuclear is a fatal threat toward South Korea's national security, and in that case Seoul's national projects cannot be implemented effectively. For South Korea, coexistence with nuclear armed North Korea will seriously danger the matter of national survival. Therefore it should be a top national task for Seoul that Pyongyang's nuclear issue must be urgently resolved by using all the possible means from the lowest level to the highest one. If South Korea takes all the necessary actions with strong will such that Seoul never allows Pyongyang's nuclear weapon at any rate, the US will do its best to remove nuclear weapons in North Korea in consideration with South Korea's security demand. As long as South Korea sticks to only dialogue with no sanctions even though North Korea continues to proceed its nuclear program and insists its possession of nuclear weapons, then Pyongyang will completely disregard Seoul. What Seoul needs to do is (1) to set resolving Pyongyang's nuclear issue as a top national task, (2) to use all the possible means in order to block Pyonyang to become a nuclear state, and (3) to consider the ROK-US alliance to be a major factor to deal with the nuclear issue. More importantly, South Korea should make all the South Korean people's perception into unity with regard to the Pyongyang's nuclear issue and to have common strategy toward North Korea with the United States.?