[특집] 한반도 군비통제와 주한미군

Inter-Korean Arms Control and the Future of USFK: Possibilities and Limits of Coexistence

Since the end of Korean War, the U5-ROK security alliance has served its objectives very well: that is, deterrence of North Korean military attack against the South. However, with the unfolding the mood of reconciliation and cooperation between the two Koreas, the rationale of the ROK-US security alliance and the existence of the USFK will be challenged. Thus it is wise to think of ways to maintain and further develop the ROK-US security alliance and to identify the rationale of the USFK There would be various factors which influence the status of the USFK Most notably three, or four, factors stand out: improvement of inter-Korean relations and diminishing North Korean threat; inter-Korean arms control process, or Korean peninsular peace process; and the changes in US strategy. If inter-Korean realtions improve and North Korean threat is reduced, the rationale of the ROK-US security alliance and the USFK-deterrence of North Korean attack-will be challenged. And public demand for the reduction, or withdrawal, of the USFK will mount. Second, the USFK cannot be immune from inter-Korean arms control process. Of course, the USG and ROKG have firmly stated that the USFK cannot be subject to negotiation, except between the ROK and the US. North Korea has persistently demanded the withdrawal of the USFK as a condition for peace process. Anyway, it is not possible for the ROKG and lB:; to avoid the discussion of the future of USFK and combined defense posture which is centered around Combined Forces Command in tension reduction process. Third factor is the possibility of US strategic change as a response to strategic change in Northeast Asia. Since 1945, any change of the USFK has been driven by the unilateral US strategic changes. The exclusion of the Korean Peninsula by Acheason Line actually led to the withdrawal of US forces, except military advisors. Nixon doctrine and EASI I had contributed to the reduction of USFK Thus it is possible to say any change of the size and structure of the USFK will be greatly affected by the US strategic changes in the coming years as it was in the past. Inter-Korean arm; control will be quite different from other arm; control cases. First, there is a conceptional gap between the two Koreas regarding the threat that is, while South Korea is primarily concerned with North Korea's threat, North Korea is mainly concerned with the US threat. Second, there is big difference between the two Koreas in terms of military capabilities. While South Korea's military capability is primarily conventional, North Korea has already passed the breakpoint by acquiring WMD capabilities. Third, inter-Korean arm; control is inevitably connected with the issue of USFK and combined defense system Fourth, inter-Korean arm; control will be greatly affected by regional strategic landscape. Fifth, political utility of armed forces and military assets will impede the progress in tension reduction and arm; control due to the regime characteristics and related internal constraints. By taking into account the above factors, we can say that the possibility of success in arms control on the Korean Peninsular is not so bright. It does not necessarily mean the impossibility. Rather it means difficulties. Furthermore, South and North Korea have quite different approaches and proposals regarding arms control. North Korea has demanded four things: withdrawal of USFK; conclusion of peace treaty between the U; and North Korea; ban on the combined military exercises with foreign troops; and ban on the introduction of new weapons. Over the years, North Korean proposals have become more sophisticated by including some CBMs. But the feasibility is very low and their proposal must be interpreted within the political context. South Korea has relatively new to arms control. By reviewing European experience, - South Korea has adopted 3 stage approach: CBM ~ arms limits ~ arms reduction. Under the current situation,