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KCI등재 학술저널

[특집] 동북아 군사정세 전망과 한국의 안보

Prospects for Military Situation in Northeast Asia and Security of South Korea

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National security stands for capacity or state of a nation to protect the territory, the people, properties, and institutions from internal or external threats. Military defense is the most important core, along with diplomacy, of national security. Nations should constantly adapt to changing security environment, and readjust their security policies for survival and development. It is desirable to foresee military situation to prevent or minimize security problems and obstacles ahead. The main objective of this paper is to examine and analyze South Korea's external security environment in the short, mid, and long term perspective, and consequently to prepare against anticipated military situation in the future. Considering South Korea's geopolitical setting and confrontation with the North as well, its security is greatly influenced by North Korea and the four major powers surrounding the Korean peninsula. South Korea's security is particularly determined by the military policies and capabilities of the five neighboring countries. Contrary to the hopes and expectations of the many, the end of the cold war does not necessarily guarantee peace and stability of the global community. In the post-cold war era, international order and problem solving led by powerful leading nation is uncertain, and in a sense anticipating future situation has become more difficult. Power politics and arms race among nations, which is based on realism rather than idealism, prevail in the post-cold war era. Unlike the European community, Northeast Asia is not an exception. Military confrontation between the two Koreas, despite the sunshine policy and the historical summit meeting between the two Koreas in June, 2000, military tension on the Korean peninsula remains high. The Bush administration seems determined to pursue the goal of Missile Defense project despite the opposition and denunciations of Russia, China, and North Korea. North Korea's suspicious nuclear ambition, developing long-range missile and the exportation of missiles to some of Middle East countries are cause for alarm. On the other hand, North Korea denounces Japanese militarism and South Korea's military spending. Northeast Asia is a dynamic region, but the contending countries create tension and uncertainty. America is more concerned with the strong showing of Chinese economic development, regarding it as a serious challenge to the American superiority. Growing Japanese military strength make China and two Koreas worry. Military rivalry between Japan and China is shown in Japan's plan to redeploy self-defense forces to the South soon to prepare against strengthening Chinese military power. Increase in Chinese military expenditures reflects China's misgivings about American and Japanese threat. Apparent and aggressive Changes in American security policy inevitably affects military situation in Northeast Asia. The QDR submitted to the US Congress by Secretary Rumdsfeld on September 30, 2001 pointed out regional powers' potential to threaten stability in Asia, and warned the possibility of large scale military rivalry and the emergence of military contender. The Bush administration pursues the MD, aggravating relations with Russia, China, and North Korea. Protecting the home land and waging war on terrorism has become America's foremost concern since the World Trade Center and the Pentagon were attacked on September 11, 2001. Although president Bush enjoys high degree of popularity at home, America's arrogance and unilateralism draw criticisms and complaints from foes and allies. In view of uncertain changes in military situation and dynamic relations among the six nations in Northeast Asia, South Korea should be sensitive to its environment, and try to readjust its security policies. South Korea needs strong Korean-American alliance system as well as close Korean-Japanese relationship.

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 탈냉전시대의 동북아 질서

Ⅲ. 탈냉전시대의 동북아 군사정세

Ⅳ. 동북아 국가간 관계와 정책고려사항

Ⅴ. 결론 및 정책 고려사항

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