[특집] 북한의 미사일 위협과 우리의 대응책

North Korea's Missile Development and the ROK's Countermeasures

Modern era is the era of the ballistic missile. The ballistic missile renders the distinction between the frontal and rear area as well as the distinction between national boundaries meaningless. Missile enables standoff attack from the remote area, both from the air and sea without being noticed. This phenomenal change in the nature of battlefield necessitates new approach to battle management, military operation, and military strategy. Therefore, it is critical to analyze North Korea's missile development from a holistic view, not limited to its diplomatic maneuver with the United States. This paper attempts to analyze North Korea's objectives of missile development in terms of strategic, political and economic perspective. Then, it reviews the US approach to resolve the missile problem. After that, it will develop policy options for the South Korean government to deal with North Korea's continuous missile development as well as the missile development in Northeast Asia. North Korea has continuously developed its missile program from short to medium to long-range since late 19708. Surprisingly, the North test-launched three-staged long-range missile in August 1998, which affected experts and concerned governments to update North Korea's missile capabilities in a haste. Pyongyang not only develops its missiles from the military motivation to use it in the next war, but also use it for political and economic gains. The U.S. government sought to resolve the missile issue through negotiations with North Korea, while developing military options to deal with Pyongyang's missile threats by means of NMD, TMD, and regional cooperation to block missile exports to other proliferators by the North. South Korean government should consider four options to enhance its own missile and anti-missile capabilities. Those options include foreign acquisition, domestic research and development, pressing North Korea to accede to the missile technology control regime and comply with its requirements, and enhancing Korean all power to be able to destroy all North Korean missile sites with the beginning of the war. This paper compares merits and demerits of each option. It also provides in -depth analysis on those options so that South Korean government can achieve its mid to long-tenn security goals and advance its missile and missile defense technology.