[특집] 동북아의 전략적 부상과 미래전의 유형

Future Conflicts and Information Warfare: Implications for Northeast Asia and Korea

The central objective of this paper is to examine the potential impact of information warfare and the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) in Northeast Asia and Korea. Signilicant debate has already taken place relating to emerging spectrums of conflict, the growing threat posed by information or cyber warfare, and the impact of the RMA. Nonetheless, only limited research has been conducted within Korea on the relationship between the RMA and information warfare. In an effort to broaden the domestic debate on potential future directions for the ROK armed forces, ie., in the post-unification era, this paper assesses the following issues. First, an analysis of emerging conflicts with a particular emphasis on the rise of “hyrbid conflicts” or conflicts that often have multi-dimensional and or transnational characteristics. Second, the role of asymmetric strategies and potential implications for future conflict in the region. Third, key characteristics of information warfare and the RMA. And fourth, major strategic trends in Northeast Asia and Korea and implications for long-tenn defense planning. In essence, although regional forces have begun to selectively adopt RMA technologies, most of the armed forces of Northeast Asia are just beginning to analyze the role of information warfare and the RMA in shaping the conflict spectrum of the 21st century. Nonetheless, the region could witness a significantly different strategic environment over the next 20?30 years if the RMA truly begins to influence and shape strategic thinking, force modernization, and defense planning priorities. China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Taiwan, and selective ASEAN states are in the process of upgrading their respective forces with varying degrees of emerging technologies. Stand-off weapons, advanced surveillance and reconnaissance technologies and platforms, smart munitions, cruise and ballistic missiles as well as an array of other RMA -driven weapons systems will gain increasing prominence in the years and decades ahead. However, as Paul Bracken and others have argued, if an increasing number of Northeast Asia's anned forces acquire these systems, it could spur a new anns race in the region. If more and more regional countries acquire increasingly sophisticated power projection capabilities including cruise and ballistic missiles and “conventional” weapons of mass destruction, it could also result in a new security dilemma for the regional powers. For the time being, none of the Northeast Asian powers have the political, economic, or technological capabilities to take a commanding lead in RMA related sectors. Nonetheless, assuming that China is able to maintain relative social and political stability over the next two decades, that Japan continues to modernize the SDF, and that Korea also incorporates elements of RMA-driven technologies, key forces in the region will become increasingly shaped by RMA driven imperatives. Although the incorporation of new defense and information technologies is an important issue, a crucial condition for successfully adopting RMA and information warfare technologies lies in developing coherent and matching doctrines and strategies. To sum up, the paper argues that the ROK has no choice but to incorporate RMA technologies into its force structure, particularly in light of the growing importance of air and sea power in the 21st century. While the current force structure is dominated by the anny given the predominance of the North Korean military threat, the ROK has to seriously examine how best to develop a “balanced force” including a major redistribution of resources into its air and naval forces. In order for such a development to take place, however, significant hurdles remain including the need to enhance “jointness” in battle management, weapons acquisition, and doctrinal modernization.