[특집] 동북아의 새로운 국제관계와 한국의 미래지향적 안보정책

New International Order in Northeast Asia and South Korea's Future-Oriented Security Strategy: Searching For the Role of 'Strong-Waisted State'

This paper examines a new international order in Northeast Asia and explores South Korea's future-oriented security strategy. The Northeast Asian international system in the post-Cold War era has a very complex nature. It is not in an extreme state of flux. Unlike pessimists who argue that the post-Cold War East Asian international order will be instable in terms of orthodox neorealist tradition, it is not likely to face an inevitable array of chaos and instability in the near future. Even though there have been and still are historical legacy and rivalry among regional powers, especially between China and Japan, war is not likely. The rosy picture of peaceful Northeast Asia is also a remote possibility at present. The role of international institutions is still minimal. Economic interdependence in this region has been growing, but it alone does not resolve differences and diversity among countries in this region. “Perpetual Peace” is too ideal and lofty goal for them to realize in this region. In this paper, we will examine some questions as follows: (1) What is the structure of a new international order in Northeast Asia? (2) What is the nature of the structure? (3) What is South Korea's strategic role in this structure? The post-cold War Northeast Asian order is neither bipolarity nor multipolarity. It is a near-hegemonic system, in which the United States is far stronger than any other power in this region. In relative term, the U.S. power has never seriously declined in this region to the extent that other powers like Japan and China could compete with it since the last several decades. The near-hegemonic system has two groups, whose strategic goals are different in nature: one is “balance-of-power game circle”; the other “survival game circle:” The former consists of major powers in this region, namely the United States, Russia, China, and Japan, The latter is composed of smaller powers such as the two Koreas and Taiwan, The difference of their strategic goals will make different policies. Peace and stability or war and instability are the outcome of these policies. The most crucial factor for peace and stability is the role of the United States, that is, one of a near-hegemony in this region. Regional balance of power depends largely on the United Stages. American isolationism that some revisionists favor for the U.S. foreign policy goal, for instance, could change the whole picture of regional order. The United States is now pursuing deep engagement policy in this region. It has been sustaining alliances with both Japan and South Korea. Moreover, it strengthens the security relationship with Japan. Thus, the United States-Japan alliance is the most crucial pivot for stability in this region. It is however just like a dual-edged sword. It checks and balances both Japanese and Chinese power. What should be South Korea's strategy in this structure? The answer is Korea's role as a “Strong-Waisted State.” The most crucial point for this idea is that Korea is positioned in the middle of Northeast Asia, just like the waist of a human body and thus it can search for its appropriate role for peace and stability in this region. Strong Korea can help stability and moreover, unified Korea can meet that purpose. In order to be a strong-waisted state, South Korea should step up its security relationship with the United States. China is also an important country that South Korea should maintain close relationship. But the core of South Korea's strategic goal should be the security relationship with the United States.