[특집] 북한정권의 위기관리 능력과 북한 변화 전망

North Korea's Crisis Management Capability and Prospects of Political Change in North Korea

Studies on North Korea's change in the future maybe focused on three different levels of change: power elite, system, and state. This study aims to predict how North Korea will change in the future based on the evaluation of crisis management capability by North Korean power elites. North Korea has faced two kinds of crises: domestic and international crises. Challenge against governmental legitimacy, economic crisis, growing private self-regulation, and agitation among reform-oriented elites are the representative examples of domestic crises. North Korea also suffers from crises caused by external developments: North Korea has been pushed into the corner by the collapse of its socialist allies and the spread of democracy and market economy: North Korean leaders are afraid if their people are influenced by incoming information from the outside. Under Kim Il Sung's leadership, however, North Korea was able to break though major crises those caused by the raid on the Blue House (1968), the seizure of the Puebulo (1968), and the murder of American soldiers at the Panmunjom(1976). What enabled North Korea's successful management of these crises were its forceful theocracy and the existence of bipolar system. North Korean leaders correctly understood that neither the Soviet Union nor the United States could easily attack the other side because it would escalate into a major war involving massive nuclear attack. Thus, the Soviet Union and China as formidable allies of North Korea during the Cold War served as effective leverages for North Korea's intimidation against South Korea and the United States, North Korea also knew when it had to appease the U.S. to avoid possible retaliation. However. the situation has changed due to the end of the Cold War and the death of the Kim 11 Sung. and North Korea now has to find a new strategy to overcome current crises. Lack of charisma compared to his father, Kim Jong 11 heavily depends on military authority for ruling the country. After applying brinkmanship diplomacy for a few years in negotiating with the U.S. on nuclear crisis, North Korean policymakers are currently trying to get closer to the United States which they had branded as ringleader of imperialism. That is. North Korea attempts to gain economic benefits as much as possible from western countries mainly from the U.S. and to ensure its security by obtaining America's promise not to attack first. Future development of the North Korean situation depends on the leadership of the North Korean regime. North Korea will desperately try to keep its regime alive adopting a few economic reforms: for example, it has designated a few cities and is inviting foreign investment. Kim Jong Il regime will also attempt to take advantage of America's soft-landing policy for getting economic and political support from concerned countries. However. it is doubtful how long these measures will work for North Korea. North North has no choice but to open its economy to sustain its system and the taste of capitalism will gradually change the public's viewpoint against their government, even into a hostile one. At the point when the North Korean regime is no more economically able to compensate its elite group, even they might turn their back against the Kim Jong Il leadership. It is highly likely that North Korea's crisis management will fail not due to outside shock but due to gradual and slow resistance from the inside.