[특집] 동북아 안보와 중국의 역활

China and Northeast Asian Security

This study attempts to examine the question as to what role China could play in maintainining security in East Asia. Whether China can be a threat to East Asian security is not an easy question to answer. In order to explore the answer to the question, the article describes China's security policy and the trend of military buildup by examining the perceptions of Chinese leaders on the international situation, military strategies, military capability and analyzes factors affecting the future role of China in East Asia. The findings of the paper are as follows: First, China's security policies based on the perceptions on the changing international environment have changed from the defensive and military into active and comprehensive ones. The military strategic front has expanded from border areas and offshore to surrounding sea including the South China Sea and the East China sea. Second, the primary purpose of increasing defense budget is to prevent th eindependence movement of Taiwan and to prepare against the military contingencies in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Third, with its economic growth China will play an increasingly important role in restructuring the order in the world as well as Northeast Asia. However, China will not be a major threat to the East Asian security. Rather it is likely to play a balancing role in Northeast Asia. Fourth, domestic and internatoinal factors would affect the future roleof China. The factors include the sustainability of China's economic development, domestic political situation, the U.S. policy toward China and Japanese policy toward China. In sum, the future role of China depends on 1) its strategy and institutions with which China will adapt itself and respond to the changing international environment and 2) international opportunities and constraints mainly derived from the interaction with major powers in the region including the United States and Japan.