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KCI등재 학술저널

[특집] 구소련해체후 미중관계와 향후전망

Sino-American Relations after the Collapse of the Soviet Union and Their Prospects

After communism and the Cold War ended in 1989 and the Soviet Union itself collapsed in 1991, Sino-American relations began to be strained and eventually came to a confrontation in the Taiwan Strait in March 1996. Why did the Sino-American rapprochement reached in the 1970's and 1980's turn into confrontation? How did this change take place and what have been the most salient issues in dispute? And what are the prospects for their resolution? How these issues will impact on the Korean peninsula and what should South Korea be doing about them? These are some of the questions this study is addressing here. The fundamental reason why Sino-American detente has turned into confrontation is that their common enemy has disappeared since the Soviet Union demised. Now that they have no longer a strategic adversary, their bilateral relations are bound to reflect demands of their domestic politics and events of power rivalry. As a results of conflicts between a pluralist political system and a communist one party dictatorship, and between the only super power and a rising new power, Sino-American relations have contained more conflicts and confrontation. Further exacerbating these conflicts is weak leadership and the rise of democratization and independence movements in Taiwan. Sino-American relations have to be redefined in this changing internal and external situation by exploring areas of common interests. Details of these issues will be analyzed below. For better understanding, several corecontents are summarized here First, Sino-American relations began to sour when the U.S. launched its criticism of the human rights situation in China after Beijing cracked down on the democratization movement during the Tienanmen incident while Mikhail Gorvachev was visiting China in June 1989. But they really came to a confrontation When Washington issues a visit to President Li Denghui in June 1995. Second, differences over such issues as human rights, trade, nonprolifer-ation and Taiwan deepened. Further reinforcing them was fact that the military was rising in profile in China, that the Republican Party controlled the Congress, and that the Kuomintang government in Taiwan was seeking independence and international recognition by all means at its disposal. Much more important was the change that the U.S as the only superpower was defending the status quo while China as a rising power was challenging the U.S. led world order. There has been no consensus about the proper role of China in the international system that is undergoing profound transformation. Third, the prospects for Sino-American relations depend on what kinds of change take place in China's domestic and foreign policy. As of now two diverging imperatives are emerging. Political imperatives are working toward sovereignty, nationalism and balance power but economic imperatives are working toward reform, opening and interdependence. Suppose that the military prevails in upholding political imperatives while enhancing military power and economic growth, the communist one party system will reveal hegemonism in its foreign policy. In contrast, if a basic transformation is accomplished in China by undertaking democratization and privatization, such reformed and open system may well accommodate some form of multi-lateral security talks or a concert of powers by cooperating with the U.S. on regional and bilateral issues. Or China can sustain an authoritarian system involving a one party regime and an market economy, her foreign policy will reveal continuing efforts at balance of power to play off one power against the other in the ancient tradition of “using barbarians to control barbarians.” Given the current trend that China basically subscribes to realism and has a great deal of suspicions about the U.S., the third scenario is highly likely to take place. In this case, Sino-American relations are destined to have conflicts and cooperation depending on issues and personalitie

Ⅰ. 냉전종식 및 구소련해체와 미중관계

Ⅱ. 미중관계의 전개 : 화해에서 대결로

Ⅲ. 미중관계의 전망

Ⅳ. 미중관계의 장래와 한반도

Summary

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