[특집] 김정일 체제하 북한 군사정책의 변화 가능성

North Korea's Military Strategy under the Kim Jong-il Regime

North Korea's military policy does not show any sign of change on the strategic level even after Kim Il-sung's death. The reason why North Korea can not change its military policy is threefold: (1) Under the Kim Jong-il regime, Kim Jong-il can not change overnight policy prioirty the top of which had been laid on military build-up and consequent communization of South Korea through military means for the past five decades: (2) Kim Jong-il is afraid that resource diversion from military sector to economic sector may undermine his power base because the military circles have been playing a key role in upholding the Kim Jong-il regime in the post-Kim Il-sung era, and: (3) Since North Korea has an edge only in military competition with South Korea, Pyongyang intends to maximize the utility of military cards as a means to obtain concessions from U.S. counterparts by setting Seoul hostage to its coercive diplomacy on the other hand. The last point is, in particular, worrisome because North Korea's economy as well as its entire system is experiencing the worst period--either collapse or bare survival. Pyongyang's options become narrow. It may either opt for a military clash with Seoul before its military advantage becomes obsolete ortry to avoid domestic crisis by causing an external crisis as opposed to Seoul. North Korea started to take a dual-track approach to the outside world so as to escape domestic crisis. One is to improve relations with the United States and the other is to antagonize South Korea to the maximun extent Pyongyang decided to suspend its nuclear program in exchange for diplomatic normalization and provision of economic support including less weapon-prone nuclear reactor by the United States. Pyongyang further intends to maximize its success in engaing the United States while trying to isolate South Korea from the scene. To counter North Korea's dual-track approach more effectively, South Korea should design a more comprehensive policy regarding how to build peace regime on the Korean Peninsula by accommodating recent development in U.S.-North Korean relations. On the other hand, Seoul should develop policy options to prevent North Korea's habitual threat of war effectively. This papaer suggests five broad policy options. Two options are summarized here. One policy option will be to increase Seoul's defense budget to redress military imbalance within a shorter time period than originally planned. Another will be to strengthen South Korea-U.S. joint security policy developing mechanism on the basis of more accurate analysis of North Korea's dire situations. In this light, the most recent joint proposal for 4 party talks on peace-building for Korea is perfectly timely. Now, Seoul and Washington should develop conrete measures to induce China and North Korea to the 4 party talks by promoting an active participation in the policy developing process from goverment officials as well as relevant experts.