토지개발수요 추정 연구

Demand Forecast of Land Development in Korea

The purpose of this study aims at analyzing the determinant factors of land development demand under the influence of Korea's land policies and regulations through optimum modelling process using statistical multivariate analysis approach. The study found five significant results. First, the optimum model with an adjusted coefficient of determination higher than 0.5 and all independent variables in the model were found to be statistically significant under the 1% level of significance. Second, the maximum outcome of the adjusted coefficient of determination did not exceed a value of 0.6, which indicates an explaining power of 60%. The optimum model's coefficient value of 0.513 demonstrates that Korea's land policy and restriction regulations influence the land demand market. The optimum model does not account for the remaining 40%, but the explaining power of the optimum model is still high enough for this situation. Third, according to the regression analysis, regions under high development pressure were found to be better explained by three major determinant factors. These factors are related to agriculture, land price and the urban environment. Fourth, among the four independent variables, contained in the optimum model, traffic generation was the best explaining variable for the model. The second best explaining variable was the dummy variable, followed by land for potential development, and lastly by the rate of residential land price escalation. Fifth, in addition to relying on statistical results, such as the coefficient value of determination, highly experienced judgment is considered very important for developing modelling of any study area under the heavy influence of policies and regulations.