제주지역 경기동행종합지수의 개발

Development of Coincident Composite Index of Business Indicators in Jeju

In spite of increasing the role of local government in establishing and executing the regional-level economic policy after the execution of local self-governing body in 1995, there are not many regional economic indicators for the establishment of regional-level economic policy in reality. The introduction of system for analyzing and diagonizing the current economic conditions in Jeju is specially needed with the development of Jeju free International City. It is also necessary for Jeju to analyze the regional business conditions individually since the industry structure is polarized in mandarine and tourism industry. Therefore Coincident Composite Index of Business Indicators in Jeju was developed in this study. We choose 46 monthly indicators in 8 economic sectors for the development of Coincident Composite Index of Business Indicators in Jeju and six indicators - number of employees in non-farm household, industrial production index, number of tourist, income from agricultural products(real), amount of electricity used(residence), industrial production index(consume goods) - are selected among them after conformity inspection and simulation. The combination of those six indicators represents the current business conditions quite well. The movement of Coincident Composite Index of Business Indicators in Jeju is a little different from that of Korea. The peak of Jeju business cycles lags about 5 to 6 months with comparison of the peak of Korea business cycles while the trough of Jeju business cycles lags about 3 to 8 months with comparison of the trough of Korea business cycles. These findings imply that Jeju economy is dependent of Korea economy.