공통요인 효과를 고려한 아태지역 국가의 합계출산율 결정요인 분석

Analysis of Determinants of Total Fertility Rate in Asia-Pacific Countries Considering Common Factors Effect

Purpose - This study examines the impact on total fertility rate in 30 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on female labor market participation and labor market instability. Design/Methodology/Approach - There is a common factors effect of cross-sectional dependence on the total fertility rate, explanatory variables, and residuals. Therefore, it was estimated using the CS-ARDL (Cross-Sectionally augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lags) model that considers the dynamics of total fertility rate, common factors effect, and heterogeneity by country. Findings - Female labor market participation and labor market instability have a negative (-) effect on the total fertility rate, but the coefficient of the interaction term is estimated to have a positive (+) sign, so it should be considered in the impact of the labor force participation rate and unemployment rate. Research Implications - A low female labor force participation rate and unemployment rate drive a high total fertility rate, but countries with a high labor force participation rate should have a high unemployment rate, and countries with a high unemployment rate should have a high labor force participation rate. Therefore, policies are needed to enable women to balance work and family life, and facilitate entry into the labor market.